For whom the Kremlin clock tolls

When Western politicians have understood there was no chance for an effective dialog with Mr. Putin and the influence of Russia decreased due to its economic crisis, all at once, the loud statements regarding Russia started appearing in the western newspapers. Almost ten years after the death of the Russian former FSB (Federal Security Service) agent, Alexander Litvinenko, the case of his radiation poisoning has returned to the public view. Now, western media are unobtrusively pointing out an implication of Russia or even Mr. Putin himself. Suddenly, the US Treasury reveals “the secret” (not actually a surprise for many people), about the hidden wealth of the Russian President. What other dark affairs have been covered up by the Russian oil-money for so many years?

Russia propaganda: incitment of inter-ethnic hatred in Germany

Russian tries to use its propaganda mechanism everywhere. Currently, cities of Germany experience “anti-immigrant” protests of ethnic Russians, who has watched the horrible story of “rape” of an underage Russian girl, Lisa, in Berlin. Russian journalist, Iwan Blagoj, in his news story claimed that refugees committed the crime, but this is not the case according to German police statements. Even the attorney of Lisa’s family does not confirm this information or information about the rape. The journalist may be sentenced for imprisonment if German prosecutors will consider his case as a inciting the inter-ethnic hatred of Russians towards asylum-seekers and refugees. 

Russian flag with words "Lisa, we are with you" on the Town hall in Bonn, Germany

Russia: unwillingness of taking responsibility

Tools of democracy are hardly present in Russia. Now it is not left for Russia in Strasbourg, either. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has suspended the right to vote, to participate in the session of the authorized organs and in the monitoring missions for the Russian delegation starting early 2015. Russian politicians boil over from perturbation. International condemnation for its actions in Eastern Ukraine and related sanctions has led to Russia refusing to confirm the presence of its delegation in the following session of PACE. It will allow to avoid further sanctions and public shame.

Meanwhile in Eastern Ukraine

 It seemed like the conflict in the Donbass, the region of the Eastern Ukraine, has been frozen for a while. However, it is just overshadowed by the dramatic events in Syria. While Russian combat robots are fighting against rebel fighters in the Latakia province, Syria, (according investigation of Bellingcat, webpage for the citizen journalists), Ukrainian diplomats alarm the violation of the Minsk agreements by the separatists to the UN Security Council. According to them, the separatists provoke Armed Force of Ukraine by shelling their positions on the demarcation line, what makes it difficult to save ceasefire. 

Aspirations of Mikheil Saakashvili

Two years has passed since the Euromaidan but current Ukrainian government still struggle with delivering positive results in the reformation of the corrupted system. Appointing former president of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili to the position of the Governor of Odesa Oblast’ (region) has brought hopes for the fast and efficient anti-corruption reforms in the largest region of Ukraine. However, the complicated division of power and influence in Ukraine make it difficult. Shall Mr. Saakashvili create his own political party and become next Prime Minister of Ukraine? There is no rumor of such aspiration. However, there would be a great support for him from Ukrainians.

What to expect? NATO summit in Warsaw.

In July 2016 Polish capital hosts the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit. Big and important event both for the Treaty and for the region. It is also very symbolic. Not so long ago, 14th May 1955 there was creation of Warsaw Pact, the counterweight to NATO, that strengthened the Soviet influence in its neighbours in Europe. Poland joined NATO in 1999, nine years after Warsaw Pact ending. Combination of new challenges faced by the Treaty nowadays and historic symbolism could bring the significance of the event as well as, perhaps, new dimension for the organization.

Wars of Mr. Putin

        When V.Putin did not succeed in Ukrainian affair, he decided to help himself to get away from the isolation of the international community by “fighting terrorism” in Syria. Perhaps, it was not the most farsighted idea to join his also isolated friend, President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad. Syrian affair does not bring expected laurel – deaths of civilians, devastated important for people’s life infrastructure. Even though it seems like there is a slight conflict de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine, it is now incomprehensible situation in Syria. Only dropping oil price that leaves Russia without resources to start new wars, saving Russian neighbouring countries from the “care of big brother”.

Oil sorrow

         Whereas the price of the crude oil is decreasing (Brent oil price lower than 31$ for 12.01.2015) Russian economy feels worse every day. The planning of the budget for 2016 did not include such a significant drop. Some public institutions due to budget cuts has been closed. The same situation is in the Belarusian economy that is tied to Russian „oil sorrow”. Public entities are waiting for budget approval, however many of the industrial entities has already reduced working days. Both Russian and Belarusian ruble suffered considerable depreciation.

New turn of the MH17 tragedy

        The tragedy of the Malaysian Air Flight 17 (MH17) crashed on the 17^th July 2014 in the Eastern part of Ukraine, controlled by the separatists, and took lives of 298 people will appear in the European Court of Human Rights. The case will be represented by the aviation attorney, Jerome L. Skinner, in the past advocated the case of the PanAm Flight 103 destroyed by a bomb in 1988, in which Libya took responsibility.  According the investigation conducted by Bellingcat, webpage for the citizen journalists, twenty Russian soldiers of the 53ed brigade were involved in the crash of the airplane. The report of the investigation received by the Dutch Prosecution Office will be analysed by the group of inquiry.

Visa liberation for Ukraine and Georgia

      The year 2015 ended with the good news regarding the visa free travel to the European Union for the Ukraine and Georgia. Soon the citizens of these countries will be able to travel without visa to EU countries, excluding Ireland and UK, and to four countries of Schengen associated countries – Switzerland, Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein. The EU Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship remarked the hard work of Ukrainian and Georgian governments in fulfilling the necessary requirements for the visa liberation.